The southwest monsoon, which contributes more than 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, advanced across several regions during the first week of June. However, its progress soon stalled as rainfall activity weakened across the country.
Meteorologists have attributed the slowdown to the absence of a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal. According to Mahesh Palawat, Vice-President of private weather forecaster Skymet, there is currently no weather system over the Bay of Bengal to provide the necessary push for the monsoon in eastern India. He said a low-pressure area or depression is required to advance the monsoon over the eastern parts of the country and to draw moisture from the Arabian Sea along the western coast. He added that monsoon activity is likely to resume after June 22 or 23.
Palawat said a pressure area is expected to develop over the central Bay of Bengal during that period and indicated that Mumbai may not receive the monsoon until around June 25.
Weather forecasters expect atmospheric conditions to become more favourable during the latter half of June. Increased thunderstorm activity is likely between June 22 and June 28 across interior Karnataka, southern Tamil Nadu and parts of the Western Ghats. Rainfall is also expected to intensify along the Kerala and Karnataka coastlines, with wet conditions gradually extending northward towards Mumbai.
A stronger revival of the monsoon is anticipated between June 29 and July 5. During this phase, enhanced monsoon currents are expected to trigger heavy rainfall over the Western Ghats of southern Kerala and the Konkan region before spreading further inland.
Weather experts remain optimistic that the expected formation of a pressure system over the Bay of Bengal will restore momentum to the monsoon and improve rainfall distribution across the country in the coming weeks.
Large parts of Maharashtra, including Mumbai, are still waiting for substantial monsoon showers. The India Meteorological Department has indicated that no major advancement of the monsoon is expected over the next few days.
India Meteorological Department Director General M Mohapatra said that moisture content over the Arabian Sea is currently weak and that monsoon progression on the western side is expected from June 23.
Although the India Meteorological Department declared the onset of the monsoon over Maharashtra on June 8, rainfall has remained largely absent across the state. The situation has prompted the state government to advise farmers against rushing into sowing operations.
The prolonged pause in the monsoon has heightened concerns over rainfall distribution and agricultural activities, making the expected revival in the coming weeks crucial for millions dependent on seasonal rains across the country.
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